碳纤维行业进入“高端转型”关键期

Core Viewpoint - The carbon fiber industry is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "high-end transformation" due to slowing demand in downstream sectors like wind power and electric vehicles, leading to a potential oversupply crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Supply - Carbon fiber, known for its low weight, high strength, and corrosion resistance, is increasingly used across various industries, including automotive and aerospace [3]. - China's carbon fiber demand reached 84,000 tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, with expectations that domestic supply will account for 80.1% of total demand by 2024, up 27.6% [6]. - The global demand for carbon fiber in the wind power sector is projected to exceed 100,000 tons by 2025, representing over 60% of total demand [5]. Group 2: Production and Technology - The production of high-performance carbon fiber is complex, requiring precise control over multiple steps in the manufacturing process, with significant technical barriers [8]. - The cost of producing higher-grade carbon fibers increases exponentially, with T1000 potentially costing 10 to 20 times more than T300 [8]. - Current production capabilities in China have advanced to stable mass production of T800 and experimental production of T1000, but high-grade carbon fiber still lacks a systematic approach [10]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Future Trends - The industry is at a critical juncture where transitioning to high-end, high-performance products is essential for overcoming homogenization and driving energy security [10]. - The C919 aircraft, China's first domestically produced large passenger aircraft, utilizes 11.5% carbon fiber, with future models expected to increase this to 50%, indicating a rapid growth in demand for high-end carbon fiber [10]. - The carbon fiber sector is encouraged to explore new markets and applications, particularly in areas like energy safety, vehicle lightweighting, and hydrogen energy [10].