新财报季启幕，标普500能否闯关7000点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the U.S. stock market, driven by chip manufacturers like Broadcom, and highlights the mixed signals from the labor market and economic data, which may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions in the near future [3]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. labor market shows a "low hiring, low layoffs" trend, with December non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 70,000. November's job additions were revised down from 64,000 to 56,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, better than the 4.5% forecast. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.2% expectation, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, above the anticipated 3.6% [6]. - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for January increased by 1.1 points to 54.0, the highest since September of the previous year, although it remains low compared to the same period last year due to inflation and employment market concerns [6]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the January meeting dropping from 17% to 5%, in March from 53% to 29%, and in April from 79% to 51%. The next expected cut is now seen in June, with a theoretical probability of 100% [7]. Stock Market Performance - In the first complete trading week of 2026, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the S&P 500 index nearing 7000 points and the Dow Jones approaching 50,000 points. The non-essential consumer goods sector led gains with a 5.8% increase, while materials and industrial sectors rose by 4.8% and 2.5%, respectively [9]. - The upcoming earnings season is expected to show an 8.3% year-on-year growth in S&P 500 earnings and a 7.6% revenue increase, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2022. The technology and financial sectors are projected to lead this growth, while energy and consumer staples face challenges [10]. Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The market is shifting towards sectors that have underperformed in recent years, with the S&P 500 value index up about 2% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the 1% gain of the growth index. Investors are becoming more selective, favoring stocks like Google and Amazon while showing caution towards others like Apple and Nvidia [11]. - The article notes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield needs to hold above 4.20% to support the stock market, with potential volatility expected as earnings reports and monthly inflation data are released [11].