美元走向如何重构货币秩序？首席经济学家热议汇率与货币体系演变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mid-term trends of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, emphasizing the potential for a more multipolar global monetary system amid increasing economic uncertainty and pressure on the dollar [3]. Group 1: Dollar and Yuan Trends - Experts believe the US dollar is currently in a phase of adjustment, with a potential for short-term appreciation of the yuan, but significant structural economic issues cannot be resolved through large-scale yuan appreciation [5]. - The dollar is under pressure due to high US debt and deficits, which are expected to weaken its long-term credit foundation, as indicated by rising gold prices and a declining dollar index [5][6]. - The yuan may appreciate to around 6.8 in the short term, especially if the dollar weakens, but it is expected to fluctuate around 7 in the medium term [6][9]. Group 2: Future of the Monetary System - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, with a decentralized and more diverse currency landscape likely to emerge, rather than a sudden decline of the dollar [8]. - The importance of non-fiat assets like gold and commodities is increasing, reflecting a broader erosion of the foundations of fiat currencies, including the dollar [8]. - The yuan's international status is contingent on improvements in China's economic fundamentals and asset returns, with its use in international trade settlements expected to rise [9][10].