中长期纯债基“开门黑”：半数未获正收益，去年收益还不如货基

Core Viewpoint - The bond fund market in 2026 has started off poorly, with over 40% of pure bond funds failing to achieve positive returns due to rising long-term interest rates, particularly affecting medium to long-term products [3][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - Approximately 1,600 medium to long-term pure bond funds have not achieved positive returns, accounting for nearly 50% of all such funds [5][9]. - The average return of bond funds over the past year is only 1.83%, a significant drop from 3.60% in the previous year, indicating a near halving of returns [8][10]. - In 2025, the average return of medium to long-term pure bond funds was just 0.78%, down nearly 80% from 3.44% in 2024, even falling below the average return of money market funds at 1.12% [10][11]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Flows - The bond market's weak performance has led to significant capital outflows, with over 50 billion yuan withdrawn from bond ETFs and large redemptions from several off-market bond funds [6][8]. - Notable underperformers include funds like Jinyuan Shun'an Hongze and Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Rate Bond, with declines exceeding 0.7% [6][7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Returns - The primary reason for the decline in returns is the upward pressure on long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield rising about 5 basis points to 1.89% and the 30-year yield increasing about 8 basis points to 2.33% since the beginning of the year [12][14]. - Many underperforming funds had high exposure to long-term government bonds, which has contributed to their poor performance amid rising interest rates [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a phase of wide fluctuations, with limited downward space for yields but manageable risks for significant upward movements [3][19]. - Analysts suggest that a conservative coupon strategy may offer better value in the current market environment compared to trading strategies [18][19]. - The overall sentiment among institutions regarding the bond market in 2026 is cautious, contrasting with the bullish environment of 2023-2024 [18][19].