【转|太平洋机械-26年度策略】科技创新，周期崛起

Investment Highlights - The mechanical industry experienced a growth rate of 41.69% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 17.66%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [3] - The top three sub-sectors in terms of growth were engineering machinery components (93.20%), lithium battery specialized equipment (92.49%), and metal products (80.47%), while the rail transit equipment sector saw a decline of 3.80% [3] Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the total market value of mechanical equipment holdings by various fund types was 69.8 billion yuan, accounting for 3.39% of the total market value of A-shares, indicating a low allocation of 1.09 percentage points compared to the industry’s 4.47% share [5] Performance Overview - The mechanical equipment industry achieved a total operating revenue of 1.533 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.46%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 110.19 billion yuan, up 16.86% [8] Engineering Machinery Sector - Domestic demand for engineering machinery is recovering, driven by factors such as water conservancy projects and machinery replacement, with excavator sales in 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 18.59% [9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which is expected to benefit the engineering machinery sector through policy support and a renewal cycle [12][17] - Exports of excavators showed a positive trend, with a cumulative sales volume of 104,000 units in the first eleven months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.85% [19] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robot sector is seeing continuous product iteration and performance upgrades, with several companies planning to achieve mass production by 2026 [24][35] - Capital investment in humanoid robotics has surged, with over 32.8 billion yuan raised in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating increased market interest [27] - Government policies are actively supporting the development of the humanoid robot industry, aiming to establish a competitive industrial ecosystem by 2027 [33][34] AI and Equipment Demand - The AI industry is experiencing high demand, with major tech companies significantly increasing capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, projected to exceed 350 billion USD in 2025 [38] - The construction of AI data centers is driving up electricity demand, benefiting the gas turbine market, which is expected to see a rise in sales from 38,917 MW in 2020 to 70,838 MW in 2025 [39] Industrial Equipment Trends - The industrial robot market is on an upward trajectory, with a cumulative production of approximately 673,800 units in the first eleven months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.20% [52] - Forklift sales are also increasing, with domestic sales reaching 843,000 units, up 14.27% year-on-year, and exports growing by 13.96% [56] - The machine tool sector is seeing steady production growth, with a cumulative output of 783,000 units in the first eleven months of 2025, up 12.70% year-on-year [58] Lithium Battery Equipment - The demand for dynamic storage batteries is on the rise, with global shipments expected to grow significantly, supported by increased capital expenditures from leading battery manufacturers [60] - The solid-state battery sector is also advancing, with several companies planning to achieve mass production by 2027, indicating a positive outlook for equipment suppliers [64] Photovoltaic Equipment - The photovoltaic industry is shifting towards technology upgrades, with new production lines focusing on n-type battery cells, which are expected to dominate the market [67] 3C Equipment - The consumer electronics sector is entering an innovation cycle, with the foldable smartphone market projected to see explosive growth in 2026, benefiting upstream equipment demand [68]