不追景气，偏爱分歧：宏利基金孟杰的逆向投资哲学

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy of buying during industry divergence and selling during economic recovery, highlighting the importance of independent thinking and understanding market discrepancies [2][12]. Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy focuses on three key elements: industry prosperity, company excellence, and low valuation, with a preference for the latter two [3]. - The approach is to invest in industries that are currently out of favor but have strong underlying companies, aiming for high returns when market sentiment shifts [12]. - The strategy involves a "bottom-up" approach, selecting stocks based on their potential for recovery and growth rather than chasing market trends [12]. Focus Areas for 2026 - The investment outlook for 2026 includes three main themes: technology (cloud computing, semiconductor equipment), manufacturing recovery under the "anti-involution" trend (chemicals, photovoltaics, aquaculture), and export sectors (consumer goods to the US and capital goods to emerging markets) [3][15][16]. - The technology sector is particularly promising, with expectations of a new innovation cycle led by Apple, which historically has created investment opportunities in its supply chain [16]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a cyclical recovery, driven by global demand growth and supply constraints [17]. Performance Metrics - The fund managed by the company, Hongli Ruizhi Stable Mixed Fund, achieved a return of 100.60% over nearly five years, significantly outperforming its benchmark by 82.58 percentage points [18]. - The Hongli Ruizhi Growth Mixed Fund, established in May 2024, reported a return of 45.96% since inception, exceeding its benchmark by 15.21 percentage points [19]. Investment Framework - The investment framework is built on a cyclical and growth-oriented approach, focusing on sectors like chemicals, electronics, and new energy [6][13]. - The emphasis is on understanding the potential for net profit margin improvements within these sectors, which is crucial for identifying investment opportunities [13]. Risk Management - The investment strategy includes a balanced and diversified portfolio to manage risks, focusing on leading companies in familiar industries rather than speculative small-cap stocks [7][12].