Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in deposit interest rates in China, highlighting the challenges faced by banks in attracting deposits amid a significant wave of maturing deposits in 2026, estimated at 50 trillion yuan [4][17]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - Large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) are still attracting attention from savers despite declining interest rates, with some banks offering rates as low as 1.55% for three-year deposits [5]. - As of January 7, over 30 banks have announced the issuance of large-denomination CDs for 2026, with promotional activities aimed at attracting depositors [5]. - The trend shows a shift towards shorter-term large-denomination CDs, with many banks focusing on one-year or shorter products, while five-year CDs are nearly extinct [8][16]. Group 2: Interest Rate Changes - Interest rates for three-month large-denomination CDs have dropped below 1%, with some banks offering rates as low as 0.95% [6][9]. - Most banks are offering three-year large-denomination CDs with rates not exceeding 2%, and one-year rates are often below 1.5% [9]. - Several private banks have accelerated their rate cuts, with notable reductions in rates for various terms, including a drop from 1.90% to 1.80% for three-year deposits at certain banks [12][14]. Group 3: Maturing Deposits and Investor Behavior - A significant amount of deposits, particularly those with terms of one year or more, will mature in 2026, with estimates indicating over 20 trillion yuan for two-year and three-year deposits [17]. - Investors are showing varied responses to maturing deposits, with some seeking higher returns through alternative investments like stocks or structured deposits, while others remain cautious and consider traditional savings options [18]. - The article notes that banks are adjusting their deposit strategies, promoting structured deposits and low-risk investment products to attract depositors facing maturing funds [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The prevailing market sentiment suggests that monetary policy will remain accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts in the near future [20][19]. - Analysts predict that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, possibly before the Spring Festival [19].
大额存单利率进入0字头,存款到期钱该放哪
阿尔法工场研究院·2026-01-12 00:06