黄金，再创新高！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, despite heightened volatility in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metal Price Movements - On January 11, gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce [1]. - In the first complete trading week of 2026, both gold and silver futures prices have shown significant increases, with gold rising by 3.96% and silver by 11.72% [3]. - Silver futures experienced extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [5]. Group 2: Market Influences - Geopolitical events, such as the U.S. raid in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the increased allocation of precious metals by investors [3]. - Goldman Sachs noted that silver lacks the demand support from global central bank reserves, making its price more sensitive to market liquidity [8]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive liquidation of gold and silver positions [13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite facing short-term downward pressure, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth this year [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that a normalization of monetary policy, particularly interest rate cuts driven by easing core inflation pressures, could support higher metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [16]. Group 4: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices have also risen due to increased geopolitical risks and unexpected reductions in U.S. crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising by 3.14% and Brent crude by 4.26% [18].