债市进入“低性价比”时代

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2025 faced significant challenges characterized by high volatility, low yield space, and thin returns, leading to a complex environment for investment institutions [2][5][9]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market experienced extreme fluctuations, with a notable decline in interest rates compared to the previous year, resulting in a challenging investment landscape [3][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield started at 1.6% and saw rapid increases, peaking around 1.92% in September, reflecting economic recovery expectations and supply pressures [7][8]. - By the end of 2025, the bond market displayed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds rising while short-term bonds showed slight declines, indicating a steepening yield curve [8][10]. Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Different types of institutions exhibited varied investment behaviors, with large commercial banks and insurance companies showing strong buying interest, while others like city commercial banks and securities firms were net sellers [10][11]. - The investment strategies of institutions shifted towards cautious approaches, focusing on cost reduction and risk management amid a declining attractiveness of the bond market compared to equities and commodities [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As 2026 begins, the bond market is anticipated to open with a 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.85%, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter [12][13]. - The market is closely monitoring monetary policy adjustments, with expectations for a gradual approach to easing, influenced by economic recovery goals and structural inflation concerns [14][15]. - Institutions are preparing for a continued volatile environment, with strategies focusing on maintaining trading intensity for excess returns while managing costs effectively [15].