国海富兰克林基金2026年度展望：慢牛延续，结构分化下的机遇与挑战

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Franklin Fund indicates that the A-share market in 2026 is expected to be influenced by a "slow bull" market characterized by structural differentiation, with significant performance from the technology sector and resource revaluation [1][15]. Group 1: Technology Growth - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the core driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with its impact expected to surpass that of the internet and mobile internet eras [3][4]. - The AI sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth in 2026, driven by advancements in domestic manufacturing technology and the mass production of GPUs, alongside established advantages in large model development in China [5]. - The focus for investment in the AI industry should be on commercial opportunities in application and the technological iteration path in computing power, with a recognition of potential short-term disruptions in stock selection due to hardware technology changes [4][5]. Group 2: Resource Revaluation - The report notes a significant increase in the prices of non-ferrous metals, driven by geopolitical tensions, de-globalization trends, and the rising demand for strategic resources due to the AI revolution [7][8]. - The supply-side dynamics are influenced by the U.S. implementing tariffs and localization policies, while China continues to manage its advantages in rare earths and other strategic materials [7]. - The potential for value revaluation trends to extend into oil and agricultural products is highlighted, with oil prices being a critical factor affecting global inflation and economic policies [8]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Stabilization - The decline in real estate prices since 2021 has led to a contraction in local government and household balance sheets, contributing to weak domestic demand [10][11]. - Short-term stabilization of domestic demand relies on balancing the asset-liability sheets of households, governments, and enterprises, while long-term recovery will depend on fundamental changes in economic driving models [10]. - The direction of real estate policy will be crucial for the market structure in 2026, determining whether it will adopt a conservative "support" strategy or a more aggressive "stimulus" approach [11]. Group 4: National Competition - The report suggests that a stable external trade environment is essential for the continuation of strong performance in foreign demand-driven sectors [13]. - The U.S. is expected to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy, which may lead to a phase of stability in U.S.-China relations and improved ties with Europe [13]. - Despite potential trade disputes in Southeast Asia, China's ability to manage these challenges has significantly improved compared to the past [13]. Conclusion - Overall, Guohai Franklin Fund maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, expecting a better environment than in 2025, with a continued focus on technology growth and resource revaluation [15].