碳酸锂行情日报：强预期再加杠杆，三分钟打卡下班

Market Overview - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a surge due to expectations of increased exports of lithium batteries. On January 12, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) reached 152,000 CNY per ton, an increase of 10,000 CNY from the previous working day. The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) also rose by 10,000 CNY to 120,000 CNY per ton [1][2] - Futures trading saw a significant rise, with the main contract closing at 156,060 CNY per ton, up 12,880 CNY from the previous day, while open interest continued to decline [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 9 and January 12 showed notable increases across various lithium products: - Lithium concentrate rose from 1,920 CNY to 2,040 CNY, a 120 CNY increase - Battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 14.2 CNY to 15.2 CNY, a rise of 1 CNY - Lithium hydroxide went from 12 CNY to 13 CNY, also up by 1 CNY - Lithium iron phosphate increased from 5.08 CNY to 5.24 CNY, a 0.16 CNY increase - Three-element materials remained stable at 18 CNY [2] Industry Sentiment - Recent discussions in the market were focused on the potential for lithium carbonate prices to rise significantly. Following the announcement of a reduction in export tax rebates for lithium batteries, market expectations have shifted positively. Approximately 50% of surveyed companies believe that lithium carbonate prices could reach 200,000 CNY by April 1, while 30% anticipate prices could hit 250,000 CNY, with a small fraction expecting prices to exceed 300,000 CNY [6][10] Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the VAT export rebate for battery products from January 1, 2027. This change is expected to increase export costs, impacting market dynamics [9][10] Supply Chain Developments - The first shipment of lithium concentrate (approximately 30,000 tons) from Hainan Mining arrived at Yangpu Port on January 9, indicating ongoing supply chain activities in the lithium sector [9] - Xingfa Group plans to produce and sell 70,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate in 2026, primarily supplying BYD, reflecting the growing demand for lithium battery materials [9]