日元要转向升值了？

Core Viewpoint - The market remains vigilant regarding currency intervention, making it difficult for the yen to depreciate unilaterally. Historical trends indicate that the yen's exchange rate often reverses direction at the beginning of the year, with a strong support expected starting in 2026 [2][6]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - On January 6, the yen appreciated to the range of 156.0-156.5 yen per dollar, marking a 1 yen increase from the previous day's low [4]. - The yen's exchange rate is expected to reverse direction at the beginning of each year from 2023 to 2025, with significant changes anticipated in January [9]. - The chief foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Securities noted that the yen's trend is likely to shift towards appreciation, especially as concerns about fiscal deterioration under the current administration diminish [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Intervention - The Japanese Finance Minister expressed the government's readiness to intervene in the currency market, which has curbed the trend of yen depreciation [6]. - Similar to the yen, the Korean won has also been subject to intervention, with the South Korean authorities actively working to prevent excessive depreciation [5][8]. - The sensitivity of the yen to U.S. interest rate fluctuations is significant, with a 1% change in U.S. long-term rates potentially causing a 12 yen fluctuation in the exchange rate [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Recent data from the U.S. labor market is expected to serve as a barometer for the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, as accurate economic data becomes available [11]. - Hedge funds and non-commercial entities have shown a slight net buying position in yen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards the yen as they prepare for potential trends in 2026 [11].