碳酸锂期货一字涨停，冲破15万元，两年来首次

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market has shown strong performance, with lithium carbonate prices surging, marking a significant rebound from last year's lows, driven by expectations of increased demand due to changes in export tax policies [1][6][7]. Price Movement - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate hit a limit up, increasing by 9% to 156,060 yuan/ton, surpassing the 150,000 yuan mark for the first time in two years [1]. - Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have rapidly increased, breaking through multiple price thresholds, with a rebound of over 150% from the low point in June of the previous year [1]. Spot Market Performance - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 152,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was at 148,500 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of 12,000 yuan and percentage rises of 8.57% and 8.79%, respectively [3][4]. Stock Market Reaction - The A-share lithium mining index saw significant gains, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Jinyuan Co. rising over 6%, and others like Zhongkuang Resources and Shengxin Lithium Energy increasing by more than 5% [4]. Policy Impact - The recent adjustment in export tax policy for battery products, effective from April 2026, is expected to create a rush for exports before the tax rate decreases from 9% to 6% and eventually to zero [6][7]. - Analysts believe this policy change will enhance the profitability of lithium battery companies and lead to increased overseas prices, benefiting companies not affected by the tax changes [7]. Demand Dynamics - There is a notable increase in demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors, shifting market expectations from oversupply to a tight balance, with first-quarter demand significantly exceeding expectations compared to the same period in 2025 [7]. - Current prices are seen as reflective of the supply-demand fundamentals, with strong market conditions expected to persist in the first quarter [7]. Future Considerations - If lithium carbonate prices continue to rise and exceed 200,000 yuan/ton, there may be upward pressure on costs for other battery materials, potentially suppressing downstream demand and triggering a reversal in supply-demand dynamics [7]. - Concerns have been raised about speculative trading in lithium carbonate prices, which could lead to a zero-sum game within the industry and misguide capacity investments, increasing long-term oversupply risks [8]. Regulatory Measures - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market and mitigate potential risks, regulatory bodies have implemented measures such as adjusting trading fees and limits [8].