首席经济学家眼中的2026年大类资产图景

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights from the "2026 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting," highlighting the shift in global asset pricing logic and the focus on gold, RMB assets, stocks, and emerging markets as key investment areas amid a changing macroeconomic environment [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is seen as a critical variable for global asset pricing, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts driven by the financial system's liquidity needs rather than controlled inflation [4]. - There is an increasing probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates and re-enter an expansionary balance sheet cycle in 2026, leading to a downward trend in short-term interest rates while long-term inflation expectations may not decline simultaneously, resulting in a steepening yield curve [6]. - The correlation between the US dollar index and risk indicators has weakened, indicating that the dollar's safe-haven status is no longer stable [6]. Group 2: Gold and Precious Metals - Gold is viewed as transitioning from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "core anchor" in the new asset pricing system, with expectations of a significant upward shift in its price center due to the restructuring of the global credit system [9]. - Silver and certain base metals are highlighted for their potential, as silver's historical correlation with global liquidity remains strong, suggesting that structural opportunities within precious metals may not yet be fully realized [9]. - Both gold and silver are considered important stabilizers in asset allocation, with no systemic basis for a decline in their prices amid ongoing rate cuts and a weakening dollar [9]. Group 3: Multi-Polar Order and Asset Repricing - The transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order is reflected in unconventional market phenomena, such as the weakening of the dollar's safe-haven property and the narrowing of emerging market spreads [12]. - Emerging markets are increasingly significant in global manufacturing, trade, and economic growth, yet their asset valuations have not fully adjusted to reflect this change, indicating a long-term repricing opportunity [12][13]. Group 4: RMB Assets - There is a consensus among economists that the RMB is likely to appreciate steadily in 2026 due to the combined effects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and rising price levels in China, with potential for over 30% cumulative appreciation in the long term [15][16]. - The stock market is also viewed positively, with expectations that the A-share market may reach its peak in the second half of the year, driven by economic recovery and price increases [18].