人民币，还会涨吗？机构最新研判！

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of the RMB exchange rate is stable with a tendency to strengthen, with the USD/RMB remaining below the 7.0 mark. The future trajectory of the RMB is expected to exhibit a pattern of two-way fluctuations due to a combination of internal and external factors, as well as market expectations [1][10]. Group 1: Internal and External Factors - The recent RMB appreciation is driven by multiple factors, including external influences such as the significant depreciation of the USD, which has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB. The weakening of the USD is attributed to the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the dollar's credibility [3][4]. - Internally, positive shifts in China's macroeconomic narrative, proactive measures against external shocks, stable economic growth of around 5%, and progress in US-China trade negotiations have collectively rebuilt market confidence in Chinese assets, providing support for the exchange rate [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - China's external demand has shown unexpected resilience, with exports increasing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first eleven months, contributing to a growing trade surplus that supports liquidity in the foreign exchange market. Additionally, year-end corporate foreign exchange settlement demands have further bolstered RMB appreciation [3][5]. - The attractiveness of Chinese assets has improved, with the A-share market performing well, as evidenced by a 16.5% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index for the year, shifting market expectations from a "weak RMB" to a "stable and rising RMB" [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2026, domestic monetary policy is expected to remain "appropriately loose," with predictions of two interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points each, which is an increase from the 10 basis points cut in 2025. This is anticipated to have a limited impact on the RMB exchange rate [7][8]. - The central bank's focus on preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate is expected to maintain the RMB's stable foundation, with a moderate appreciation trend likely to continue. The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is also expected to support RMB appreciation [8][10]. Group 4: Future Exchange Rate Projections - The RMB exchange rate is projected to exhibit a two-way fluctuation pattern in 2026, with short-term movements influenced by domestic economic recovery, progress in trade negotiations, and USD interest rate paths. Long-term trends will fundamentally depend on the progress of domestic reforms [10][11]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around a central range of 7.0 to 7.2, with potential depreciation pressure, but supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing employment and market expectations, which could lead to GDP growth of 4.5% to 5.0% in 2026 [10][11].