第一财经·2026-01-12 10:49Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is a significant policy shift that has led to an unexpected surge in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter, as companies rush to secure orders before costs rise [3][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products, marking the industry’s transition into a "no rebate subsidy" phase, which will increase export costs [3][4]. - This policy change has prompted overseas buyers to place orders in advance to avoid higher costs, resulting in a spike in export demand during the first quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major photovoltaic companies such as Dongfang Risen, Trina Solar, and Longi Green Energy saw significant stock price increases, with Dongfang Risen hitting a new high since September 2023, closing up over 14% [3]. - The market has reacted to the antitrust situation in the silicon material sector, leading to a divergence in the photovoltaic industry chain, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low growth [4]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - Leading component manufacturers have begun raising component prices in response to the export rush, indicating a strong willingness to increase prices downstream, which may lead to improved profit margins for component manufacturers in the first quarter [4]. - The price dynamics in the silicon material sector will depend on the self-regulation of the industry alliance and the profit margins of the companies involved [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the current export rush has temporarily alleviated the "double weakness" in supply and demand within the photovoltaic industry, there is a risk of preemptively exhausting overseas demand for the second quarter [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a sharp decline in demand following the export rush could mirror past experiences, emphasizing the need for self-regulation within the industry to stabilize prices [5].