70万亿定期存款年内到期，留在银行还是进入股市？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant amount of deposits maturing in 2026, estimated to exceed 160 trillion yuan, and the implications for potential "deposit migration" into the capital markets, emphasizing the need for a rational perspective on where these funds will flow in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Deposit Maturity Estimates - Various institutions have provided differing estimates on the scale of maturing deposits, with a consensus indicating that the amount could reach between 160 trillion and 170 trillion yuan in 2026, with approximately 70 trillion yuan of one-year and longer-term deposits maturing, marking an increase of about 10 trillion yuan from 2025 [3][4][6]. - According to CICC's latest estimates, the total amount of maturing resident deposits in 2026 is around 75 trillion yuan, with one-year and above deposits accounting for approximately 67 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% and 17% respectively [6][11]. Institutional Insights - State-owned banks are identified as the primary source of maturing deposits due to their large deposit bases and lower interest rates, with estimates suggesting that the six major banks will have around 57 trillion yuan in maturing deposits in 2026 [7][10]. - The distribution of long-term deposits varies among different types of banks, with rural commercial banks having a higher proportion compared to joint-stock banks [7]. Deposit Retention and Migration - Historically, over 90% of deposits tend to remain within the banking system, with the retention rate for deposits remaining high at around 96% in 2025 [10][11]. - The article highlights that while some deposit migration is expected, the majority of deposits are likely to stay in banks due to stable risk preferences among residents and liquidity management needs [10][11]. Potential Investment Channels - The primary channels for potential deposit migration include consumption, home purchases, loan repayments, and diversified financial products such as bank wealth management, insurance, and mutual funds, with direct stock market entry being a less common route [12][13]. - The article notes that only about 6% of the total deposits are allocated for financial asset configuration, indicating a cautious approach among the general public towards entering the stock market [13][14]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The growth of non-bank deposits has been significant, with bank wealth management products contributing the most to this increase, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among high-net-worth individuals [14]. - The article suggests that the recovery of resident confidence in 2026 may lead to increased investment in various asset management products, particularly among higher-income groups, which could stimulate further capital market activity [14].