金价首破4600美元，上金所出手降温，黄金ETF暂停申购

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [3][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movement - COMEX gold futures prices have surged, reaching an all-time high of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver peaked at $84.69 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 6% [3]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a maximum of 1031 yuan per gram, and silver futures saw a daily increase of 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The overall trend in the futures market shows a strong bullish sentiment, with all six base metal futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closing higher, including a 5% increase in tin and a 2% increase in copper [6]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent U.S. labor market data indicated a slower-than-expected increase in non-farm employment, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, has provided new support for gold prices [6]. - Upcoming inflation data is anticipated to impact gold prices, with expectations that persistent inflation may slow down the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace, potentially limiting gold's recent upward momentum [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - Central banks continue to accumulate gold, with China's gold reserves reported at 7415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [7]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold accumulation, coupled with global monetary expansion and a shift away from the dollar, is expected to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. Group 4: ETF and Investment Strategies - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit purchases, with the E Fund Gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, 2026, to adjust the pricing of gold contracts and protect investor interests [9]. - The adjustment in the Bloomberg Commodity Index weights for gold and silver is expected to create selling pressure, particularly on silver, which may experience greater volatility due to its smaller market size [10].