21世纪经济报道·2026-01-12 14:21Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the new energy photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, highlighting the impact of changes in export tax policies on these industries and the ongoing "anti-involution" actions aimed at stabilizing prices and production capacity [1][5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On January 12, the lithium battery leader CATL saw its H-shares drop by 3% and A-shares fall over 4%, while companies like Deyang Nano and Hunan Yueneng experienced mixed results with increases and decreases in their stock prices [1]. Export Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting April 1, 2026, the export VAT refund for photovoltaic products will be canceled, and the VAT refund rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will be completely eliminated [2][3]. Industry Response and Actions - The lithium battery and photovoltaic industries have been facing challenges due to mismatched supply and demand and intense price competition, leading to a series of "anti-involution" initiatives aimed at expanding demand, adjusting prices, and controlling production capacity [3][5]. - Since 2025, there have been calls within the lithium battery sector to resist vicious competition and control the disorderly growth of production capacity, with various companies announcing price adjustments to stabilize the market [5][6]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Despite the seasonal downturn typically seen in the first quarter, the demand for power and energy storage batteries remains strong, with companies reporting sufficient orders and saturated production capacity [8]. - The export tax policy changes are expected to lead to an increase in battery prices, as overseas buyers adjust their purchasing strategies to avoid higher costs after the policy takes effect [8][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the cancellation of export tax refunds will increase the costs and prices of Chinese photovoltaic components in overseas markets, which may lead to industry consolidation and a return to more rational pricing in the long term [7][10].