存储芯片或将涨价50%，手机厂商紧急减产千元机

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing unprecedented price increases driven by strong AI demand, leading to a seller's market and significant challenges for mobile manufacturers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Starting from the second half of 2025, there has been a notable shift in the storage chip market, with a strong demand from downstream terminal customers seeking stable prices [1]. - The price of 4GB DRAM memory has surged from approximately $20 to $40-50 by the end of 2025, marking a significant increase not seen in over a decade [3]. - The AI industry's explosive growth has restructured the demand for storage chips, with major manufacturers reallocating production towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for servers, thus squeezing supply for consumer electronics [3]. Group 2: Price Trends and Predictions - The storage chip market has entered a "super bull market," with prices expected to rise by 40-50% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [4]. - The current price levels have surpassed historical highs from 2018, indicating a prolonged and substantial price increase cycle [4]. Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies - Mobile manufacturers are responding to rising costs by lowering shipment targets to prioritize profit margins and adjusting product pricing or specifications to mitigate cost pressures [7]. - Strategies include raising prices by 10-20% for similar products and optimizing configurations to balance costs and profitability [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The rising storage chip prices are expected to significantly impact the competitive landscape of the mobile industry, with many manufacturers revising their shipment forecasts for 2026, anticipating a 3-4% decline in overall market shipments [8]. - The market is shifting from scale expansion to value competition, with a focus on technological reserves, supply chain management, and brand resources becoming critical for survival [9]. - By 2026, the market share for smartphones priced above $600 is projected to reach 35.9%, while lower price segments are expected to shrink, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and competitive dynamics [9].