突破15万元关口，碳酸锂期货涨停！机构提示情绪与资金风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, surpassing 150,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high with a closing price of 156,060 yuan/ton, reflecting a 9% increase [2][3] - The cumulative increase since the low point in June 2025 has exceeded 160%, making lithium carbonate one of the most watched commodities in the market [3] - The core driver of this price surge is the market's reaction to adjustments in export tax rebate policies, leading to expectations of "export rush" behavior [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent rise in lithium carbonate spot prices has reached around 140,000 yuan/ton, with low inventory levels across the supply chain supporting price increases [4] - Anticipation of increased demand in 2026 due to the adjustment of export tax rebates is expected to tighten inventory further, driving prices up [4][5] - The long-term outlook suggests a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with steady growth in electric vehicle sales and potential expansion in energy storage battery demand [5] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains optimistic, but there are warnings about potential supply-side elasticity and the risks of profit-taking due to rapid price increases [6][7] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculative trading, reflecting a commitment to maintaining market order and protecting compliant investors [7][8] - The trading environment is characterized by significant price volatility, necessitating caution among market participants [8]