金价首破4600美元，黄金ETF暂停申购

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions [3][6]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movement - COMEX gold futures prices have surged, reaching an all-time high of $4612 per ounce, while COMEX silver peaked at $84.69 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 6% [3]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures hit a maximum of 1031 yuan per gram, and silver futures saw a daily increase of 14%, closing at 20945 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The overall trend in the futures market shows a strong bullish sentiment, with all six base metal futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closing higher, including a 5% increase in tin and a 2% increase in copper [6]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - Recent U.S. labor market data indicated a slower-than-expected increase in non-farm employment, which, combined with a declining unemployment rate and a weakening dollar, has provided new support for gold prices [6]. - Upcoming inflation data is anticipated to impact gold prices, with expectations that persistent inflation may slow down the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace, potentially limiting gold's recent upward momentum [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - Central banks continue to accumulate gold, with China's gold reserves reported at 7415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) as of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [7]. - The ongoing trend of central bank gold accumulation, coupled with global monetary expansion and a shift away from the dollar, is expected to support the upward trajectory of precious metals [7]. Group 4: ETF and Investment Strategies - To manage high inflows, gold ETFs have begun to limit purchases, with the E Fund Gold ETF announcing a suspension of subscriptions starting January 16, 2026, to adjust the pricing of gold contracts and protect investor interests [9]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index has adjusted its target weight for gold from 14.29% to 14.90%, while silver's weight decreased from 4.49% to 3.94%, effective January 15, 2026, which may lead to significant selling pressure in the silver market [10]. - Investment strategies should consider the volatility of gold and silver, with recommendations for long-term holdings to hedge against inflation while being cautious of geopolitical risks and central bank purchasing patterns in the short term [10].