专家预计：未来三年中国电动车出口欧盟年均增速约20%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the progress of negotiations between China and the EU regarding electric vehicle exports, highlighting a consensus to provide general guidance on price commitments for Chinese exporters of pure electric vehicles to the EU [3]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - Chinese brands are experiencing rapid growth in the EU market, with a record market share of 12.8% in the European electric vehicle market as of November 2025 [4]. - In the hybrid vehicle sector, Chinese brands have surpassed a 13% market share across the EU, EFTA countries, and the UK [4]. - The export of Chinese electric vehicles to the EU is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of around 20% from 2026 to 2028, positioning China as a key driver of global electric vehicle market growth [4]. Group 2: Export Data - In the period from January to November 2025, China exported over one million complete vehicles to the EU, leading in all categories of electric vehicle exports [4]. - Specifically, 2.07 million pure electric vehicles were exported from China, with 580,000 units going to the EU, accounting for 28% of total exports [5]. - For plug-in hybrid models, 940,000 units were exported, with 250,000 to the EU, making up nearly 27% of the total [5]. - Ordinary hybrid vehicle exports reached 440,000 units, with 170,000 to the EU, representing about 39% of the total [5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The price commitment mechanism established through negotiations is seen as a significant breakthrough, replacing high tariffs and ensuring stable market access for Chinese electric vehicles in the EU [6]. - This mechanism is expected to shift the focus from trade disputes to deeper industrial collaboration between China and the EU, particularly in areas like battery recycling and carbon footprint management [6].