炼化行业迎来转型拐点

Core Viewpoint - The traditional growth model of the refining and chemical industry, which relied on scale expansion, has ended, and future growth will focus on optimizing existing capacity and "slimming down" operations [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The refining industry is at a clear turning point, with a strict cap of 1 billion tons on refining capacity set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, necessitating strict control over new capacity and the implementation of "reduction and replacement" policies [3]. - China's refining capacity is projected to peak at 960 million to 970 million tons per year by 2025, indicating that the era of traditional scale expansion is over [3]. - Current crude oil processing capacity in China totals 97.245 million tons per year, reflecting a 2.78% increase from 2024, with the expansion trend nearing its endpoint [5]. Group 2: Capacity and Policy Implications - Approximately 4.88 million tons of small-scale refining capacity, which is less than 2 million tons, remains in operation, accounting for about 5% of current refining capacity [5]. - The industry must adapt to a new growth engine under the rigid constraint of the 1 billion ton refining capacity cap, focusing on the transformation of existing facilities and the adoption of new technologies [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Investment in the refining industry is shifting from new projects to deep innovation of existing assets, optimizing the value arrangement within the unchanged total capacity [6]. - Projects like the Guangxi Petrochemical project aim to reduce oil products by 3.49 million tons while increasing chemical products by 3.06 million tons, showcasing the shift from "more refining" to "better production" [6]. Group 4: Challenges for Private Refineries - Private refineries face significant pressure, with those in the 2 million to 5 million ton capacity range being crucial for the optimization and restructuring of the domestic refining sector [8]. - Strategic partnerships with state-owned enterprises can help private refineries convert their refining capacity into shares or interests in modern, integrated projects, addressing challenges related to technology and funding [8]. Group 5: Technological Advancements - The transition from quantity to quality in the refining sector is heavily reliant on technology, with refineries evolving into "molecular factories" capable of precise hydrocarbon manipulation [10][12]. - New technologies, such as catalytic cracking and coal-oil co-processing, are being implemented to enhance chemical yield and support industry upgrades [12]. - The future competitiveness of refineries will hinge on their ability to manage hydrocarbon molecules effectively, utilizing advanced techniques to adjust product structures in response to capacity constraints [12].