光伏产业亟须规范竞争“硬标尺”

Core Viewpoint - The key to solving the photovoltaic industry's development dilemma lies in raising the technical efficiency threshold and implementing precise policy guidance to support strong and capable players [2][6]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The phenomenon of "involution" in the photovoltaic industry has escalated from a market concern to a regulatory focus, with the central economic work conference emphasizing the need for comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition [3]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry, highlighting issues such as low-quality competition and repetitive construction that have led to widespread profitability difficulties and distorted market resource allocation [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - Traditional models relying solely on scale expansion are no longer sustainable; technological innovation is becoming a crucial force for progress [5]. - The president of the China International Science and Technology Promotion Association emphasizes that "core technology autonomy" is essential for maintaining sustainable and valuable "scale leadership" in the industry [5]. - The "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Normative Conditions (2024 Edition)" has raised the component efficiency admission standard to 23.1%, with encouragement for the application of high-efficiency components not lower than 23.8% in large-scale renewable energy projects [5]. Group 3: Capacity and Market Dynamics - The industry faces structural contradictions due to an imbalance in capacity, particularly in upstream sectors like silicon materials and wafers, where supply exceeds actual demand [8]. - With the slowdown in new installations, excess capacity is being cleared through price reductions, which increases competitive pressure throughout the industry chain [8]. - Forecasts indicate a significant decline in new installation growth rates, with estimates suggesting a drop of approximately 20% by 2026 under neutral scenarios [8]. Group 4: Collaborative Restructuring - The industry must transition from excessive competition to collaborative development, with all segments of the supply chain (silicon materials, wafers, batteries, components) aligning production capacity with market demand to avoid blind expansion [8][9]. - Horizontal collaboration is necessary to break the isolated development patterns of different segments, while vertical collaboration should focus on achieving profitability balance across the entire supply chain [9]. Group 5: Financial Risk Management - The industry requires clear and stable regulatory frameworks to guide development and set standards, particularly in terms of financial risk control [10]. - Companies with high debt levels, some exceeding 70% asset-liability ratios, need to manage their financial health more effectively to avoid risks associated with blind expansion [10]. - Key financial indicators, such as the cash-to-short-term debt ratio, are critical for assessing short-term solvency, with most major companies currently above the safety line [10]. Group 6: Future Development - The photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from scale expansion to high-quality development, necessitating a collaborative effort in technical standards, capacity constraints, and operational norms to shift the focus from price competition to value creation [11].