200亿+，30万吨！碳纤维产能潮来袭

Core Viewpoint - The carbon fiber industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, driven by increased demand from aerospace and wind energy sectors, leading to a notable recovery in market performance and a shift from price wars to price increases among major players [4][5][6]. Market Performance - In 2025, China's apparent consumption of carbon fiber is projected to reach 91,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 52.48%, while actual consumption is expected to be 96,400 tons, reflecting a staggering growth of 71.89% [4]. - The demand surge is primarily attributed to the aerospace sector and wind energy, with the latter's demand for carbon fiber reaching 48,900 tons, surpassing the global demand levels of 2024 [4]. Price Trends - Major carbon fiber manufacturers are initiating price hikes after nearly three years of price competition, with Toray announcing price increases of 10%-20% for its TORAYCA™ carbon fiber and related products [4][6]. - Jilin Chemical Fiber plans to raise prices for its wet-process carbon fibers by 5,000 yuan per ton and 10,000 yuan per ton, respectively, starting January 1, 2026, marking its second price increase in 2025 [4]. Industry Developments - The carbon fiber industry is witnessing a transition from "scale expansion" to "performance upgrade," driven by emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics, which are increasing the demand for high-performance carbon fibers [5]. - A total investment exceeding 20 billion yuan is being directed towards carbon fiber-related projects, with over 300,000 tons of products involved in the carbon fiber industry chain [6]. Project Highlights - Jilin Province is initiating a carbon fiber high-tech industrial park project with a planned annual production capacity of 9,000 tons of T1000 carbon fiber and 50,000 hydrogen bottles [7]. - Wehai Guangwei Composite Materials is developing a project for high-performance carbon fiber additives with an investment of 31.5 million yuan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 5,700 tons [8]. - The Shaoxing Keqiao Baowan carbon fiber project is set to produce 120,000 tons of PAN-based carbon fiber raw silk, with a total investment of 3.198 billion yuan [10]. - China Petrochemical Shanghai Petrochemical is investing approximately 3.196 billion yuan to establish a 30,000-ton large tow carbon fiber project in Inner Mongolia [11]. Future Prospects - The carbon fiber industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by increasing demand, price recovery, and application expansion, which are the core driving forces behind its growth [6].