美国攻击委内瑞拉让OPEC面临逆风

Core Viewpoint - The potential development of Venezuela's oil reserves by the United States could significantly diminish OPEC's price control capabilities, leading to a shift in the global oil market dynamics [2][5]. Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Venezuela, a member of OPEC, has the largest oil reserves in the world, and the U.S. is the largest oil producer. If the U.S. develops Venezuela's oil, OPEC's influence may further decline [2]. - As of January 12, WTI crude oil futures were around $59 per barrel, only about 3% higher than before the U.S. attack on Venezuela, and significantly lower than the peak prices during the Ukraine crisis in 2022 [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Venezuela's oil production could increase from over 800,000 barrels per day to 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day within two years, and potentially reach 2.5 million barrels per day in ten years [4]. Group 2: OPEC's Challenges - The shale revolution in the late 2000s revitalized the U.S. as an oil producer, overshadowing OPEC's influence. In 2016, OPEC formed the "OPEC+" framework with Russia to regain some price control [7]. - Post-COVID-19, non-OPEC countries like the U.S. and Guyana have steadily increased production, leading to a decline in OPEC+'s market share. Some OPEC+ countries plan to gradually lift production cuts starting April 2025 due to oversupply [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Trump's administration aims to lower gasoline prices ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which could be supported by increased Venezuelan production, keeping oil prices low and enhancing U.S. energy security [8]. - The short-term impact of U.S. actions may benefit Gulf Arab oil producers, as over half of Venezuela's oil exports go to China, potentially strengthening the negotiating power of Gulf countries seeking alternative supply sources [8].