2025年钠离子电池市场盘点——全年3.45GWh，产业发展迈入新阶段

Core Viewpoint - The sodium-ion battery and materials industry is expected to experience rapid growth in 2025, driven by global energy transition and lithium resource price fluctuations, transitioning from the R&D phase to industrialization [1] Production and Market Overview - In 2025, China's sodium-ion battery production is projected to reach 3.45 GWh, nearly doubling from 1.76 GWh in 2024 [1] - The energy storage sector will dominate downstream applications, accounting for 52%, followed by light-duty power (20%) and start-stop applications (17%), with the power sector representing less than 10% [1] Technical Route and Pricing - By 2025, the polyanion (NFPP) route will establish a dominant position, comprising about 70%, while the layered oxide route will drop from 72% in 2024 to 28% [3] - Sodium battery prices are expected to trend downward, with layered oxide products priced higher than polyanion products. The average price for layered oxide cells is between 0.55-0.6 yuan/Wh, while NFPP cells range from 0.45-0.55 yuan/Wh [5] Market Segmentation Energy Storage Market - Major sodium-ion energy storage system projects are concentrated in regions like Hubei, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Shanghai, with prices dropping from approximately 1.3 yuan/Wh at the beginning of the year to below 0.7 yuan/Wh by Q4 [8] - Sodium-ion batteries are expected to gradually replace lead-acid batteries in data centers and communication base stations, with higher acceptance in overseas markets, particularly Europe [8] Light-Duty Power Market - The light-duty power sector will account for 20% of the downstream market in 2025, with sodium-ion batteries being adopted by several electric two-wheeler manufacturers [10] - The penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries in the small power market is expected to reach 30%-40% due to their low cost and long cycle life advantages [10] Start-Stop Battery Market - Sodium-ion batteries are rapidly emerging in the start-stop battery market for vehicles, with nearly 30 battery companies launching sodium-ion start-stop power products [11] - The market size for start-stop batteries is estimated to approach 100 billion yuan [11] Power Market - Progress in the passenger vehicle sector is slow due to low energy density, while commercial vehicles are actively exploring applications [13] - Sodium-ion batteries are expected to find breakthroughs in range-extended and hybrid models where high cycle counts are required [13] Competitive Landscape - The market is dominated by polyanion and layered oxide routes, with leading companies like Vico Technology, Haifida, and Pioneering Technology focusing on polyanion applications [15] - Major players include CATL and BYD in lithium batteries, and new entrants like Zhongke Haina and Qingna Technology in sodium batteries [15] Future Outlook - The sodium-ion battery industry is anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale application in 2026, supported by technological advancements, cost reductions, and policy backing [22] - Energy density and cycle life are expected to improve, with mainstream sodium batteries achieving energy densities of 170-180 Wh/kg and polyanion batteries reaching 110-120 Wh/kg [23] - The cost of sodium batteries is projected to fall below 0.40 yuan/Wh by 2026, enhancing their competitiveness in energy storage and low-speed electric vehicle applications [23]