有传言称高市将解散众议院，日元贬值重燃

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, reaching a new low of 158.20 yen per dollar, influenced by political developments and market dynamics, leading to increased speculation in currency depreciation trades [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - On January 12, the yen's exchange rate fell to 158.20 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level since January 2025, driven by speculation surrounding the potential dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives [2]. - The "debasement trade" has gained traction among overseas speculators, with the dissolution of the Japanese parliament seen as a catalyst for further yen depreciation [4]. - If the yen breaks through the 158 yen level, the next significant resistance level is projected at 160 yen [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's report indicated that non-commercial positions in yen were overbought by 8,815 contracts, reflecting a balanced buying and selling sentiment despite a decrease in total positions compared to December 2025 [5]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, contributing to a bearish outlook on the dollar and influencing trading strategies [5]. Group 3: Resource Currency Trends - There is a growing interest in currencies of resource-producing countries, such as the Australian dollar and South African rand, with the rand reaching 9.60 yen and the Australian dollar hitting 106 yen, both marking significant highs [5]. - The potential for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates as early as February is increasing, driven by strong economic indicators [6]. - Despite the risks associated with resource currencies, there is a trend of buying these currencies even in risk-averse scenarios, as both the yen and dollar exhibit weaknesses [6].