剑道电子·2026-01-13 09:10Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy in the semiconductor industry, focusing on the expansion of FAB and storage manufacturers, as well as the recovery cycle of analog chips [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 4.47%, underperforming the electronic industry by 0.69 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.19 percentage points [3][5]. - The SW semiconductor index's PE (TTM) was 100.50x as of December 31, 2025, placing it at the 80.92 percentile since 2019 [3][17]. - The semiconductor sub-industries with the highest growth included semiconductor equipment (+9.08%), semiconductor materials (+8.49%), discrete devices (+5.56%), and analog chip design (+5.13%) [3][5]. Group 2: Fund Holdings and Investment Strategy - In Q3 2025, the proportion of semiconductor heavy holdings in active funds was 12.56%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][22]. - The top twenty heavy holdings in active funds saw the addition of Huahong Semiconductor and Yuanjie Technology, replacing OmniVision and Naxin Micro [6][26]. - The article suggests focusing on companies in the expansion phase, such as SMIC, Huahong Semiconductor, and others, as well as analog chip companies like Shengbang Technology and Jiewa Technology during the recovery phase [9][10]. Group 3: Global Semiconductor Sales and Pricing Trends - Global semiconductor sales in November 2025 reached $75.28 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5% [7][28]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash contracts continued to rise, with predictions of a 55-60% increase in DRAM contract prices in Q1 2026 [30][32]. - The article highlights that the demand for storage is driven by AI, with prices still in an upward cycle [9][30]. Group 4: Company Performance and Forecasts - The article provides forecasts for key companies, indicating that Huahong Semiconductor is expected to have a net profit of 0.90 billion yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 226 [11]. - The production capacity utilization rates for SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor were reported at 95.8% and 109.5%, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [35][37]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant recovery, with various companies expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion and demand for chips [9][10].