经济观察报·2026-01-13 10:17Core Viewpoint - Despite the imposition of countervailing duties, the momentum of Chinese automobiles entering the European market remains strong [1]. Group 1: EU-China Electric Vehicle Negotiations - On January 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced progress in negotiations regarding the EU's electric vehicle case, emphasizing mutual respect and the need for price commitment guidance for Chinese exporters [2]. - The EU Commission released guidelines for submitting price commitment applications, allowing eligible Chinese electric vehicle companies to replace countervailing duties with price commitments [2]. - Price commitments involve exporters voluntarily agreeing to sell products at or above a certain price level to mitigate the adverse effects of subsidies [2]. Group 2: Countervailing Duties and Market Projections - In October 2024, the EU Commission concluded its countervailing investigation, deciding to impose a five-year countervailing duty of up to 35.3% on electric vehicles imported from China [3]. - The EU Commission expressed willingness to continue negotiations with China regarding price commitments as an alternative to tariffs [3]. Group 3: Local Production and Market Growth - By April 2025, high-level talks between China and the EU agreed to initiate negotiations on electric vehicle price commitments and explore a minimum import price mechanism to replace tariffs [4]. - Despite countervailing duties, the sales of Chinese automobiles in the EU, UK, and EFTA countries are projected to exceed 700,000 units in 2025, significantly up from 408,000 units in 2024 [4]. - Chinese automakers are advancing local production in Europe, with BYD starting construction of factories in Hungary and Turkey, and GAC Group collaborating with Magna for localized production of the AION V SUV in Austria [4]. - The Spanish government has chosen to abstain from voting on tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles, creating a favorable investment environment for Chinese companies [4]. - The potential of the European market for Chinese automakers, especially in the new energy vehicle sector, is substantial, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy passenger vehicles in Europe for the period from January to November 2025 [4].