2026全球能源展望：能源韧性、AI、务实转型深度交织

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector will continue to be a crucial arena for global economic development, geopolitical competition, and technological rivalry in the coming year [3]. Group 1: Energy Security - Energy security is a top priority, with "growth, resilience, and competition" identified as key themes for the global energy market in 2026 [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have brought energy security back to the forefront, particularly for Europe, which is increasingly focused on reducing dependence on Russian oil and gas [5]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global crude oil supply will exceed demand by 385,000 barrels per day in 2026, indicating a potential oversupply in both oil and natural gas markets [5][6]. Group 2: AI and Power Demand - The explosive growth of AI will significantly increase electricity demand, with global data center power needs expected to rise by 17% in 2026 [9]. - The accessibility of electricity has become a primary consideration for data center site selection, surpassing traditional factors like network connectivity [8]. - The rapid expansion of data centers driven by AI will create pressure on the power industry, leading to competition for utility capacity and potential delays in grid integration [9]. Group 3: Grid Modernization - Modernizing the grid is essential for ensuring energy security and facilitating energy transition, as outdated infrastructure poses a significant bottleneck [11]. - In the U.S., the surge in data center power demand is straining the existing grid, necessitating urgent investments and smarter planning to avoid capacity crises [11]. - The European Union also faces challenges with aging grid infrastructure, requiring substantial capital investments estimated at €584 billion by 2030 to enhance reliability and reduce gas dependency [11]. Group 4: Energy Transition - The global energy transition is expected to slow down, with a more pragmatic and localized approach emerging in response to energy security and affordability constraints [12][14]. - Renewable energy capacity growth is projected to decelerate, with solar energy installations expected to decline for the first time, indicating a shift in the industry's dynamics [12][14]. - The stability and localization of supply chains for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel are becoming strategic priorities to ensure the sustainability of the energy transition [14].