深度解读 AGI-Next 2026：分化、新范式、Agent 与全球 AI 竞赛的 40 条重要判断

Core Insights - The AGI-Next 2026 event highlighted the significant role of Chinese teams in the AGI landscape, with expectations for further advancements by 2026 [1] - The article emphasizes the ongoing trend of model differentiation driven by various factors, including the distinct needs of To B and To C scenarios [1][3] - A consensus on autonomous learning as a new paradigm is emerging, with expectations that it will be a focal point for nearly all participants by 2026 [1][8] Differentiation - There are two angles of differentiation in the AI field: between To C and To B, and between "vertical integration" and "layering of models and applications" [3] - In To C scenarios, the bottleneck is often not the model's strength but the lack of context and environment [3][4] - In the To B market, users are willing to pay a premium for the "strongest models," leading to a clear differentiation between strong and weak models [4][5] New Paradigms - Scaling will continue, but there are two distinct paths: known paths that increase data and computing power, and unknown paths that seek new paradigms [8][9] - The goal of autonomous learning is to enable models to self-reflect and self-learn, gradually improving their effectiveness [10][11] - The biggest bottleneck for new paradigms is imagination, particularly in defining what tasks will demonstrate their success [12][13] Agent Development - Coding is essential for the development of agents, with models needing to meet high requirements to perform complex tasks [25][26] - The differentiation between To B and To C products is evident in agent development, where To C metrics may not correlate with model intelligence [27][28] - The future of agents may involve a "managed" approach, where users set general goals and agents operate independently to achieve them [30][31] Global AI Competition - There is optimism regarding China's potential to enter the global AI first tier within 3-5 years, driven by its ability to replicate successful models efficiently [36][37] - However, structural differences in computing power between China and the U.S. pose challenges, with the U.S. having a significant advantage in next-generation research investments [38][39] - Historical trends suggest that resource constraints may drive innovation in China, potentially leading to breakthroughs in model structures and chip designs [40]