瑞银仍“看多”A股

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience further upward movement in 2026, driven by overall profit growth and valuation recovery, supported by ample liquidity and favorable policies [3][4][10]. Market Performance - On January 13, A-share indices experienced a collective pullback after a period of gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.64% to 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.37% to 14169.40 points, the ChiNext down 1.96% to 3321.89 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 2.66% to 1806.02 points [5]. - Despite concerns about valuation, the market's overall sentiment remains optimistic, with the Shanghai Composite Index having risen over 20% since last year [5][6]. Valuation Analysis - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of A-shares has reached a level above the historical average, indicating that they may not appear cheap; however, there is still room for valuation recovery compared to global markets [5][6]. - The market is not showing signs of overheating, with active trading volumes and a healthy leverage ratio [6]. Fund Flow and Liquidity - There is significant capital flow into the A-share market, with personal investors reallocating savings and institutional funds, including insurance and public funds, showing a tendency to invest in A-shares [6][10]. - The liquidity in the market remains robust, with predictions of an 8% overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 [6][10]. Investment Opportunities - In 2026, growth stocks and cyclical sectors are expected to perform well, with a more balanced approach between large and small-cap stocks [7]. - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is anticipated to increase, as international investors seek diversification and recognize the growth potential in China [8]. Economic Context - Despite macroeconomic pressures, the Chinese stock market is viewed positively, with innovation sectors expected to drive overall market performance [10]. - The valuation of Chinese stocks remains lower than historical averages, indicating significant investment potential [10]. Sector Focus - Key investment themes include AI, internet companies, brokerage firms, and the photovoltaic sector, with expectations of strong performance in these areas [11][12].