开年狂涨38%，碳酸锂期货“20万”关口博弈加剧

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices recently surging and discussions around whether they can reach 200,000 yuan/ton again [3][4][7]. Price Movement - As of January 13, 2026, lithium carbonate futures opened at a high of 174,000 yuan/ton, closing at 166,980 yuan/ton, marking a 38% increase since the beginning of the year [3][4]. - The price rose by over 40,000 yuan/ton in just seven trading days, reflecting a strong upward trend [4]. Policy Impact - The recent surge in lithium prices is largely attributed to changes in export tax policies, with a reduction in the value-added tax for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027 [4][5]. - This policy is expected to lead to a concentration of export orders and increased production loads for battery manufacturers, driving short-term demand for lithium carbonate [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fundamental improvement in supply-demand dynamics is a key support for the current price increase, with supply constraints due to regulatory changes and long construction cycles for overseas mines [5][8]. - Demand from the commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors is significantly increasing, shifting industry expectations from oversupply to a tight balance [5][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a growing debate among institutions regarding the potential for lithium prices to reach 200,000 yuan/ton, with some analysts predicting a 30-40% increase in demand for 2026 [7][9]. - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this demand and the potential for price corrections if supply does not meet expectations [9]. Inventory Trends - The market may be entering a phase of inventory accumulation due to maintenance at some cathode material manufacturers, which could affect future supply levels [8][9]. - The current market sentiment is described as overheated, with speculative trading leading to increased price volatility [9].