第一财经·2026-01-13 13:07Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, with over ten related stocks dropping more than 10% in early trading on January 13, indicating a potential peak in speculative trading and a shift in market sentiment towards caution [2][10]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Shareholder Actions - On January 12, XW Communication saw a substantial increase of 10.59%, reaching a historical high of 88.47 yuan, before announcing a share reduction plan by its actual controller [4][5]. - The actual controller of XW Communication, holding approximately 189 million shares (19.56% of total shares), plans to reduce holdings by up to 9.64 million shares (1% of total shares) between February 3 and May 2 for personal financial needs [5]. - Following the announcement, XW Communication's stock dropped over 15% intraday on January 13, closing down 10.84% at 74.1 yuan, leading to an estimated reduction amount of about 714 million yuan for the controller [5]. Group 2: Shareholder Profit from Trading - Aerospace Development's major shareholders, including China Aerospace System Engineering Co., have profited significantly from low-cost acquisitions followed by high-price reductions, with one shareholder realizing approximately 320 million yuan in profit from selling shares [6][7]. - The stock price of Aerospace Development has increased over 367% in two months, despite its commercial low-orbit satellite operations contributing less than 1% to total revenue [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The recent sell-off in the commercial aerospace sector is interpreted as a risk release due to significant price deviations from fundamental values, with many companies issuing risk warnings about their limited exposure to aerospace-related revenues [8][10]. - The commercial aerospace concept has seen speculative trading that is disconnected from actual business performance, with companies like XW Communication reporting a decline in profitability despite stock price surges [9][10]. - The market is advised to focus on companies with genuine competitive advantages and sustainable profitability rather than chasing speculative trends [10].