高市早苗将解散众议院进行大选

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is expected to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for elections in early February 2024, aiming to expand the ruling party's seats while the cabinet's approval rating remains high [2][4]. Group 1: Election Timing and Strategy - The last House of Representatives election was held in October 2024, making the interval between elections relatively short at just 1 year and 4 months [4]. - There are various proposals for the election announcement and voting dates, including January 27 for the announcement and February 8 for voting, or February 3 for the announcement and February 15 for voting [4]. - Kishida's decision to dissolve the House at the start of the regular session has been criticized as contradictory to his previous cautious stance on early dissolution [4]. Group 2: Political Context and Challenges - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party hold a slim majority with 233 seats in the House, while the ruling party is in a minority position in the Senate, leading to an unstable political environment [5]. - Kishida's push for active fiscal policies and enhanced intelligence capabilities has faced criticism from opposition parties [5]. - The LDP's coalition agreement includes conservative policies, which may deepen the divide between parties as many are set with a deadline of the 2026 regular session [5]. Group 3: Internal and External Factors - Kishida's government has maintained a cabinet approval rating above 70% for three consecutive months since its establishment in October 2025, which has fueled internal discussions about dissolving the House while support is high [5]. - The upcoming budget deliberations in February and March may expose the government to criticism from opposition parties, increasing the urgency for elections [5]. - Kishida's recent diplomatic engagements with leaders from South Korea and Italy may serve to showcase international cooperation before the elections [5]. Group 4: Implications of Dissolution - If the House is dissolved at the start of the regular session, budget discussions will be postponed until after the elections, complicating the approval process for the annual budget [7]. - The decision to dissolve may also be influenced by China's increasingly tough stance towards Japan, particularly in light of Kishida's comments regarding Taiwan [7]. - Analysts suggest that if Kishida wins the upcoming elections, it could stabilize his administration and potentially lead to a more favorable response from China [7].