美联储被特朗普逼到“悬崖边”

Core Viewpoint - The pressure from the Trump administration on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is evolving into an unusual situation involving judicial authorities, threatening the independence of the Federal Reserve and potentially leading to market instability [2][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. has experienced seven financial crises after losing its central bank in 1837, which led to a significant economic downturn with 40% of banks forced to close [6]. - Historical precedents show that political interference in monetary policy has led to major failures, including the financial panic of the 19th century and the inflation crisis of the 20th century [12]. Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's money supply (M2) has reached $22 trillion, surpassing levels seen during the COVID-19 crisis, indicating an overheated market [7]. - The S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is at 22 times, comparable to the peak of the internet bubble in 2000, suggesting potential market volatility if investment funds reverse [7]. Group 3: Risks in Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. national debt has reached nearly $40 trillion, a historical high, with significant leverage in the treasury market posing risks of a sharp decline if the Federal Reserve fails in market regulation [7]. - Concerns are rising over the outflow of investors from the U.S. dollar, particularly influenced by the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, which could lead to significant currency fluctuations [9]. Group 4: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Trump has indicated that the next Federal Reserve Chairman must implement immediate interest rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy under political pressure [10]. - The potential nomination of Hassett, a long-time Trump advisor, as the next Fed Chair could further compromise the Fed's operational independence, reminiscent of past political pressures on the central bank [12].