美联储独立性再入市场定价视野，“抛售美国”逻辑是否回归

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is seen as a new uncertainty factor, raising discussions about the potential erosion of central bank independence, which is re-entering the global asset pricing perspective [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 13, amid multiple uncertainties, safe-haven buying in precious metals surged, with COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of $4,640 per ounce; the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop in about three weeks on January 12 [5]. - Market reactions remain relatively restrained, reflected in a slight steepening of the yield curve, a weaker dollar, and widening implied inflation expectations in inflation-protected bonds, indicating a marginal repricing of risk premiums rather than a substantial reassessment of the Fed's policy path [6]. Group 2: Long-term Implications - If the controversy surrounding the Fed's independence continues, it may elevate the risk premium required for U.S. assets in the medium to long term, providing new reasons for global investors to diversify away from dollar and U.S. Treasury allocations [6][7]. - The focus of market discussions is shifting from immediate interest rate changes to longer-term concerns about the stability of inflation expectations and interest rate anchors in the face of ongoing challenges to central bank independence [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The topic of "selling America" resurfaced, reminiscent of market volatility triggered by tariffs last year, where major U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping approximately 4.8% and the overall market losing about $3 trillion in value in a single day [9]. - Despite potential higher risk premium requirements for U.S. assets, a rapid withdrawal of funds is not anticipated; instead, gradual adjustments in allocation structures are expected [9][10].