海外独角兽·2026-01-14 04:05Core Insights - Agentic Commerce represents a significant shift in the way commerce operates, potentially transforming the landscape of internet advertising, e-commerce, and payment infrastructure if successfully implemented [2][5] - The article explores two main questions: 1) Can Agentic Commerce be commercially viable? 2) If successful, how will it reshape the distribution of benefits across the internet ecosystem? [5] Commercial Viability - The article reviews past failures of Meta and Google in e-commerce, contrasting their approaches with those of OpenAI and Perplexity, to identify which third-party models (3P) are most likely to succeed in the future [5][24] - The potential total addressable market (TAM) for three consumer behavior categories—Impulse Buys, Routine Essentials, and Life Purchases—is estimated to be $3 trillion, with Lifestyle and Functional Purchases being the most promising areas for Agentic Commerce [8][9] E-commerce Spectrum - E-commerce is described as a continuous spectrum, with Amazon and Shopify at opposite ends, defined by who acts as the Merchant of Record (MoR) [10][11] - The distinction between "Platform is the MoR" (e.g., Amazon) and "Merchant is the MoR" (e.g., Shopify) affects the business scale, merchant control over customer data, and the potential for disruption in payment systems [12][13] Agentic Commerce Paths - Perplexity and ChatGPT represent two different approaches to Agentic Commerce, with Perplexity acting as the MoR and ChatGPT allowing merchants to retain that role [14][19] - OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) decouples the front-end checkout experience from back-end payment processing, allowing merchants to maintain their existing payment service providers while integrating with ACP [15][18] Historical Context - Google and Meta's reluctance to become MoR contributed to their struggles in e-commerce, as they prioritized advertising revenue over the complexities of managing e-commerce transactions [24][26] - The article suggests that if Google or Meta had developed a protocol similar to ACP, their e-commerce trajectories might have been different [26] Impact on Advertising and Payment - The article discusses how Agentic Commerce could redefine the relationship between advertising costs and commission rates, likening both to a form of "digital tax" [32][33] - Shopify is positioned as a structural winner in the Agentic Commerce context, benefiting from its lack of MoR responsibilities and the potential for increased market penetration among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [38][39] Future Considerations - The article envisions a future where a Universal Catalog could be developed to facilitate AI-driven shopping experiences, requiring rich and structured metadata to support precise consumer needs [44]