【周度分析】车市扫描(2026年1月1日-1月11日)

Market Overview - From January 1 to 11, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 328,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 42% [2][5] - The wholesale volume for the same period was 381,000 units, down 40% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month [2][8] - In the new energy vehicle sector, retail sales were 117,000 units, a 38% year-on-year decline, while wholesale was 167,000 units, down 30% year-on-year [2][5] Production Trends - In the first week of January, production of pure fuel light vehicles was 91,000 units, a 63% year-on-year decrease, while production of hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles was 139,000 units, down 17% year-on-year [3][6] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a policy to promote large-scale equipment updates and a trade-in program, which is expected to boost domestic car consumption [5] - The policy will maintain strong incentives for commercial vehicle updates, while subsidies for passenger vehicle trade-ins are projected to decrease by 20% on average by 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - The weak retail performance in January is attributed to the recent expiration of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy, but market conditions are expected to improve as local subsidy details are fully implemented [6][9] - The January sales are anticipated to show slight growth due to pre-orders and the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival [9] International Trade Developments - The Ministry of Commerce reported progress in negotiations regarding the EU-China electric vehicle case, which aims to provide price commitments to Chinese exporters, thus avoiding high tariffs [10] - This agreement is seen as a significant breakthrough, allowing Chinese electric vehicles to maintain access to the EU market and stabilizing industry expectations [10] Pricing Trends - The average retail price of passenger vehicles has slightly decreased, influenced by structural changes in the market, with the average price expected to drop to 170,000 yuan in 2025 [11] - The average price of new energy vehicles is also declining, from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 161,000 yuan in 2025, reflecting structural changes in consumer preferences [12] Export Tax Adjustments - The recent announcement to reduce export tax rebates for lithium batteries is expected to have minimal impact on supply and demand, as the first quarter's domestic demand is only 18% of the annual total [13] - This adjustment aims to align export prices with market realities and address international trade concerns [13]