高市借高人气解散众院为长期执政铺路

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives aims to consolidate political power early, with expectations of increased seats for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to high cabinet approval ratings exceeding 70% [2][4]. Group 1: Political Context - The dissolution of the House of Representatives is anticipated to occur at the beginning of the regular Diet session on January 23, with the earliest election announcement on January 27 and voting on February 8 [4]. - The LDP's cabinet approval rating has remained above 70% since its establishment in October, with a recent poll indicating a 75% approval rate in December 2025, attributed to Takashi's leadership and economic policy expectations [4][6]. - A senior LDP official expressed confidence that the party would gain seats in the upcoming election, based on favorable polling conducted last autumn [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Dynamics - The last dissolution and election occurred in October 2024 under the Ishiba regime, where the LDP lost 56 seats, resulting in a minority government [6]. - Currently, the LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, hold a total of 233 seats in the 465-seat House, slightly above the majority threshold [6]. - The LDP aims to secure a majority on its own in the next election to facilitate responsible fiscal policies and security measures, with the belief that no major elections will occur before the summer 2028 House of Councillors election [6]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The decision to dissolve the House of Representatives carries risks, including potential policy stagnation and difficulties in passing the 2026 budget, which includes a record defense budget exceeding 9 trillion yen [8]. - Delays in budget approval could lead to temporary budgets, adversely affecting citizens and local governments [8]. - Opposition parties have criticized the timing of the dissolution, questioning its impact on economic policies and the government's accountability regarding rising prices and political funding issues [9]. Group 4: Election Dynamics - The LDP's support rate in December was only 37%, significantly lower than the cabinet's approval rating, indicating a potential disconnect between the party and public sentiment [9]. - The relationship between the LDP and its former coalition partner, Komeito, remains uncertain, with no current electoral cooperation established [9]. - Even if the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party gain seats in the House, the situation in the House of Councillors, where the ruling coalition holds only 119 seats, will not change significantly [9].