证券时报·2026-01-14 11:12Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry has shown significant growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with production and sales exceeding 30 million units for three consecutive years, and revenue surpassing 10 trillion yuan, establishing a leading position globally in electric and intelligent vehicles [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles are projected to reach 34.53 million and 34.40 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, maintaining a historical high and leading the world for 17 consecutive years [1]. - Domestic automobile sales are expected to reach 27.30 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, while traditional fuel vehicle sales are projected to decline by 4% to 13.43 million units [1][2]. Group 2: Export Growth - In 2025, total automobile exports are anticipated to exceed 7 million units, reaching 7.098 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 21.1%. New energy vehicle exports are expected to double to 2.615 million units, while traditional fuel vehicle exports may decline by 2% to 4.483 million units [2]. - Chery is projected to export 1.344 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, while BYD's exports are expected to reach 1.054 million units, marking a significant growth of 140% compared to 2024 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the total automobile sales are forecasted to reach 34.75 million units, reflecting a modest year-on-year growth of 1%. Passenger vehicle sales are expected to be 30.25 million units, up 0.5%, while commercial vehicle sales may increase by 4.7% to 4.5 million units [4]. - New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 19 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, with exports expected to reach 740,000 units, a growth of 4.3% [4].