中国股票又迎唱多声

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that Chinese stocks are expected to outperform their US counterparts in the remaining part of the year, driven by relatively low valuations, RMB appreciation, and favorable policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 14, the CSI 300 index has risen approximately 2.4% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by about 5.3%, both surpassing the S&P 500's gain of around 1.2% during the same period [2]. - In 2025, the CSI 300 and Hang Seng indices rose by 18% and 28%, respectively, compared to a 16% increase in the S&P 500 [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the revaluation of Chinese stocks is ongoing, as their relatively low valuations compared to US stocks are becoming increasingly hard for global investors to ignore [2]. - Tiger Securities notes that while US markets may not have peaked, they are at a cyclical high, making them more susceptible to negative macroeconomic factors [2]. - The valuation multiples of the Chinese stock market have returned to historical median levels, indicating that while not cheap, they are not overly expensive either [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Tiger Securities forecasts that the average annual return for US stocks will decline to a range of 3% to 5% over the next five to seven years due to high valuations, persistent inflation risks, and uncertain Fed rate cuts [3]. - In contrast, Tiger Securities is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, setting a target for the Hang Seng Index at 30,000 points by the end of 2026, an 11% increase from current levels, and a target of 5,000 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, a 21% increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the CSI 300 index to 5,200 points, a 9% increase from the recent closing price, and has upgraded its earnings growth forecast for Chinese companies from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [3][4]. Group 4: Support Factors for Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks are supported by multiple factors, including continuous improvement in innovation capabilities, broader applications of artificial intelligence, and potential inflows of household savings and foreign capital [4].