聚焦全球能源 | 石油消亡论言过于实 大型油企将受益于需求继续增长

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas industry has a promising long-term outlook, but faces short-term challenges due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers [3]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Demand - Oil and natural gas remain central to the global energy structure, accounting for approximately 60% of primary energy consumption, with a gradual and uneven transition to alternative energy sources expected [4]. - Oil demand growth is projected to slow down and may stagnate by the 2030s, but high consumption levels are anticipated to persist until after 2040 [4]. - Short-term pressures from macroeconomic weakness may impact the profitability of oil and gas producers, but demand from emerging markets, aviation, and petrochemicals is expected to support production [4]. Group 2: Future Projections - OPEC maintains a more optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth by 2026 compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA), predicting consumption to exceed 106 million barrels per day, driven by emerging market demand [6]. - The IEA has revised its forecasts downward, particularly regarding demand in China, highlighting the growing uncertainty surrounding structural changes in the transportation sector [6]. - Both IEA and OPEC expect primary energy demand to continue growing until 2035, influenced by population growth, rising incomes, and increased energy use in emerging markets [9]. Group 3: Fossil Fuel Dependency - Fossil fuels are projected to maintain a share of over 50% in global primary energy demand for many years, despite a gradual decline in their proportion [11]. - In most scenarios, fossil fuel share is expected to decrease from around 80% currently to over 50% by 2040, with the IEA's net-zero emissions scenario being the most aggressive in assuming fossil fuel phase-out [11]. - The relationship between energy consumption growth and continued reliance on oil and gas is emphasized, with stronger demand forecasts often correlating with higher assumptions about fossil fuel shares [11].