Canalys·2026-01-15 09:17Core Insights - The global smartphone market is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by seasonal demand recovery and improved inventory management, despite some manufacturers facing rising component costs [1][2] - Apple leads the market with a 25% share, benefiting from strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, achieving record quarterly shipments and maintaining its position as the largest smartphone manufacturer for three consecutive years [1][5] - Samsung ranks second with an 18% market share, primarily due to strong sales of models priced under $300, particularly the Galaxy A17 series [1] - Xiaomi remains in third place with an 11% market share, although it faced shipment challenges in key markets during Q4 [1][2] - Vivo achieved an 8% market share, bolstered by its leading position in the Indian market, while OPPO returned to growth, re-entering the global top five [1][2] Market Performance - In 2025, global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2% year-on-year, reaching 1.25 billion units, reflecting a steady market recovery, although performance varies significantly across regions [2] - The first half of 2025 showed weak performance, while the second half benefited from strong demand in emerging markets and positive responses to flagship model launches [2] - Rising memory costs and supply constraints have begun to impact the market, limiting shipment potential in Q4 [2] Manufacturer Strategies - Rising cost pressures are reshaping manufacturers' strategies for 2026, with increased semiconductor costs and a slowing replacement cycle expected to affect shipment momentum [8] - Manufacturers are optimizing configurations and aligning new product launch strategies more closely with component supply, while leveraging channels such as trade-in programs and ecosystem bundling to support higher price points [8] - The trend towards greater scale and supply-side leverage is evident, as seen with realme's integration into OPPO, reflecting manufacturers' efforts to maintain competitiveness amid rising costs [8][6] Supply Chain Challenges - DRAM supply tightness is creating significant supply pressures in the smartphone industry, expected to be a key factor influencing market trends in 2026 [5][6] - All manufacturers are competing fiercely for supply, emphasizing long-term partnerships, leveraging scale advantages to secure capacity, and focusing on core suppliers [6] - The situation is particularly challenging for manufacturers reliant on entry-level smartphones, as these models are highly price-sensitive and memory and storage costs constitute a larger share of total material costs [6]