刚刚，李稻葵发声！预判今年楼市：部分地区房价或将企稳！他还算了一笔“70亿撬动280万亿”的账

Core Viewpoint - The potential for China's economic growth remains significant, and there is a need for confidence in this outlook. The key to achieving this growth lies in upgrading the development paradigm from a development-oriented government to one that promotes comprehensive and high-quality economic development [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Recent analysis indicates that the average forecast for China's GDP growth potential over the next five years (2026-2030) is 5.2%, reflecting optimism about future growth [8]. - The supply side of the economy has substantial potential, characterized by high savings, strong R&D capabilities, and a skilled workforce. Additionally, there are still 700 million people who have not fully transitioned to modern living standards, indicating significant demand-side potential [8][9]. Group 2: Development Paradigm Upgrade - The current economic growth rate has been declining, with nominal GDP growth recorded at 4.2% in Q1, 3.9% in Q2, and 3.7% in Q3 of the previous year, leading to an estimated annual growth of around 4.0% [8]. - The need for a paradigm shift in governance is emphasized, moving from a development-oriented government to a new model that focuses on human development and comprehensive economic growth [10][11]. Group 3: Recommendations for Economic Coordination - The establishment of four key committees is proposed to enhance coordination in various sectors: 1. A Human Resources Development Committee to address education, health, and social welfare [12]. 2. A Real Estate Development Committee to stabilize housing prices and support young buyers through interest subsidies [13]. 3. An International Trade Balance Development Committee to unify trade discussions [13]. 4. An Artificial Intelligence Development and Governance Committee to balance development with employment concerns [13]. Group 4: Short-term Economic Outlook - There are several positive expectations for the current year, including stabilization of housing prices in key regions, optimism in the stock market, and a potential recovery in nominal GDP growth due to the initiation of major projects and favorable policies [16].