美联储第一季度降息概率不大

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for inflation and employment, highlighting a slow decline in inflation rates and the challenges faced in the job market [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - In December 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, marking the smallest growth since July of the previous year [1]. - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a consistent downward trend in inflation [1][2]. - The slowdown in inflation is attributed to zero growth in core goods prices, particularly in new and used vehicles, suggesting that the impact of tariffs is less severe than anticipated [2][3]. Group 2: Housing and Core Services - Core services prices increased by 0.3%, with housing costs rising by 0.4%, the largest increase in four months, indicating persistent housing inflation [2]. - The report from CoStar indicated a significant decline in U.S. rents, with a 0.31% decrease in October 2025, the largest drop in 15 years, driven by increased supply and reduced demand [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 584,000 in 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.4%, with long-term unemployment increasing, indicating a challenging job market [4]. - Real average weekly earnings for American workers fell by 0.3% in December 2025, which, while controlling inflation, negatively impacts consumer spending and economic growth [4][5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Despite potential negative impacts from tariffs, the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and government policies may support employment and income growth [5]. - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 is low unless there is significant deterioration in employment or inflation [5].