央行透露2026年货币政策风向

Core Viewpoint - The press conference highlighted the Chinese government's commitment to maintaining a loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing growth, prices, and the exchange rate, while promoting consumption and supporting the private economy [1][9]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [1][3]. - There is still room for interest rate cuts, with the current average statutory deposit reserve ratio at 6.3%, indicating potential for further reductions [3][4]. - The PBOC aims to create a conducive monetary environment for price recovery through integrated policies [3][4]. Structural Measures - The PBOC announced eight key measures to optimize economic structure, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in the quota for agricultural and small business loans by 500 billion yuan [5]. - A dedicated quota of 1 trillion yuan will be set for loans to private enterprises, emphasizing support for small and medium-sized private businesses [5]. Exchange Rate Policy - The Chinese exchange rate policy remains clear and consistent, with a focus on maintaining stability at a reasonable level [6]. - Positive factors supporting the exchange rate include a large domestic market, complete industrial chains, and ongoing economic improvements [6]. - Approximately 60% of import and export trade is minimally affected by exchange rate fluctuations, with a growing trend towards using the yuan for cross-border trade settlements [6]. Foreign Exchange Market - In 2025, the foreign exchange market transaction volume reached 42.6 trillion USD, with the corporate foreign exchange hedging ratio rising to 30%, both historical highs [7]. - The foreign exchange market is expected to operate steadily in 2026, with cross-border capital flows remaining orderly [7]. Consumer Support Policies - The PBOC will enhance financial support for key service consumption sectors, including hospitality, tourism, and elderly care, through targeted loan policies [8]. - Measures will be taken to improve residents' consumption capacity and support small businesses, alongside efforts to lower financing costs in the consumption sector [8]. - The PBOC aims to optimize the consumer finance service environment by enhancing payment services and improving the overall consumer finance landscape [8].