RockFlow Universe·2026-01-15 10:31Core Insights - Physical AI represents the ultimate evolution of AI, with the robotics sector poised for a right-side entry point after three years of underperformance compared to the Nasdaq [3][5] - The robotics ecosystem shows clear value stratification, with the driving layer (e.g., RBC, CW) capturing certainty premiums, the perception layer (e.g., OUST, NOVT) experiencing explosive growth, and companies like Nvidia and Tesla locking in long-term "value-added tax" at the platform layer [3][6] - The recommended strategy is a barbell approach, anchoring investments in the robotics ecosystem with AI giants Nvidia and Tesla while also including stable-margin component stocks like RBC and CW, and speculative perception stocks like OUST [3][6] Investment Timing - The current moment is identified as a singularity for robotics investment, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for Physical AI, transitioning from industrial tools to intelligent entities [9][10] - The cost curve for humanoid robots is collapsing, with prices expected to drop significantly due to the scaling effects of core components, enabling broader adoption and investment opportunities [12][13] Value Chain Dynamics - The robotics ecosystem can be divided into three core layers: the driving layer (actuators), the perception layer (sensors), and the integration layer (AI models) [16][22] - Actuators represent the highest cost segment (40%-50%) and are crucial for transforming robots from static machines to active agents, with linear actuators holding significant pricing power [17][18] - The perception layer is evolving from simple visual solutions to complex multi-sensor systems, with companies like OUST and NOVT leading in high-precision sensing technologies [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The focus should be on "shovel stocks" that provide essential components for robotics, which are expected to yield excess profits due to supply-demand imbalances [26][27] - Companies like RBC Bearings, Regal Rexnord, and Curtiss-Wright are highlighted as key players in the robotics supply chain, each with unique technological advantages and strong financial performance [28][29][31] - Nvidia and Tesla are positioned as core components of the robotics ecosystem, with Nvidia's AI platform serving as a foundational element for future developments [42][44]